Abstract: A semi-empirical model allowing for prediction of natural fragmentation of exploding shells is described. The initial velocity, projection angle, size and location, obtained for each fragment, are used by a point mass trajectory routine to determine the overall fragment distribution on the ground and to model fragments hitting a three-dimensional object. Examples of validation against experimental data for 105-mm shell and a mortar bomb are shown. The proposed model is useful for munition assessments, including a prediction of safety hazard in a credible accident.